In a Credit Crisis, Large Mortgages Grow Costly

In a Credit Crisis, Large Mortgages Grow Costly
By FLOYD NORRIS and ERIC DASH

When an investment banker set out to buy a $1.5 million home on Long Island last month, his mortgage broker quoted an interest rate of 8 percent. Three days later, when the buyer said he would take the loan, the mortgage banker had bad news: the new rate was 13 percent.

“I have been in the business 20 years and I have never seen” such a big swing in interest rates, said the broker, Bob Moulton, president of the Americana Mortgage Group in Manhasset, N.Y.

“There is a lot of fear in the markets,” he added. “When there is fear, people have a tendency to overreact.”
The investment banker’s problem was that he was taking out a so-called jumbo mortgage — a loan greater than the $417,000 mortgage that can be sold to the federally chartered enterprises, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The market for large mortgages has suddenly dried up.

For months after problems appeared in the subprime mortgage market — loans to customers with less-than-sterling credit — government officials and others voiced confidence that the problem could be contained to such loans. But now it has spread to other kinds of mortgages, and credit markets and stock markets around the world are showing the effects.

Those with poor credit, whether companies or individuals, are finding it much harder to borrow, if they can at all. It appears that many homeowners who want to refinance their mortgages — often because their old mortgages are about to require sharply higher monthly payments — will be unable to do so.

Some economists are trimming their growth outlook for the this year, fearing that businesses and consumers will curtail spending.

“In the last 60 days, we’ve seen a substantial reduction in mortgage availability,” said Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, a brokerage firm. “That in turn suggests that home purchases will fall further. Rising home prices were the oil that greased the wheel of this engine of growth, and falling home prices are the sand in the gears that are causing it to grind to a halt.”

At the heart of the contagion problem is the combination of complexity and leverage. The securities that financed the rapid expansion of mortgage lending were hard to understand, and some of those who owned them had borrowed so much that even a small drop in value put pressure on them to raise cash.

“You find surprising linkages that you never would have expected,” said Richard Bookstaber, a former hedge fund manager and author of a new book, “A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation.”

“What matters is who owns what, who is under pressure to sell, and what else do they own,” he said. People with mortgage securities found they could not sell them, and so they sold other things. “If you can’t sell what you want to sell,” he said, “you sell what you can sell.”

He recalled that the crisis that brought down the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund in 1998 started with Russia’s default on some of its debt. Long-Term Capital had not invested in Russia’s bonds, but some of those who owned such bonds, and needed to raise cash, sold instruments that Long-Term Capital also owned, and on which it had borrowed a lot of money.

It appears that in this case, securities backed by subprime mortgages were owned by people who also owned securities backed by leveraged corporate loans. With the market for mortgage paper drying up, and a need to raise cash, they sold the corporate securities and that market began to suffer.

The Wall Street investment banker who wanted a jumbo mortgage had a good credit score, and is not a subprime borrower. But private mortgage securities are now hard to sell, leading to his problem. In the end, he was able to get a mortgage with a lower interest rate, but it will adjust in five years, possibly to a much higher level.

The size of the rate increase he faced is unusual. But all jumbo lenders have raised rates. Bankrate.com reports that conventional 30-year mortgages cost about 6.23 percent now, less than they did a few weeks ago, due to a decline in Treasury bond rates. But the average jumbo rate is now 6.94 percent. The spread between the two rates rose from less than a quarter of a percentage point to more than two-thirds of a point.

Jumbo mortgages are most important in areas with high home prices, most notably on the East and West coasts. “In California, it has shut down the purchase market,” said Jeff Jaye, a mortgage broker in the Bay area. “It has shut down the refi market.”

The problems with subprime mortgages erupted as home prices began to slip in some markets, making it harder to refinance mortgages. There were reports that a surprisingly large number of loans made in 2006 were defaulting only months after the loans were made.

Many of those mortgages had been financed by securities, highly rated by credit agencies, that suddenly seemed less secure than they had. Hedge funds that owned those securities, and had borrowed against them, were asked to put up more money to secure their loans.

Two Bear Stearns hedge funds were forced to liquidate, and investors lost everything. Investors shied away from buying new mortgage securities, and several lenders went out of business, unable to finance the mortgage loans they had promised to make.

With the credit gears clogged, there has been a sudden lust for cash at many levels of the financial system. Last week banks in Europe and the United States tried to borrow so much money that central banks had to step in to keep interest rates from rising.

“What I suspect is that there is a demand for credit by institutions that don’t want to sell the securities they own, because the bids are so low, and the banks are extending credit to them,” said William L. Silber, a professor of economics and finance at New York University and the author of the book “When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914 and the Origins of America’s Monetary Supremacy.”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises, can still purchase mortgages and issue securities, guaranteeing that the underlying mortgages will not default. Those guarantees are still accepted by investors, and borrowers who meet their standards — meaning they can get so-called conforming mortgages — still can borrow. But those who want larger mortgages, or cannot make down payments, face a harder burden.

Homeowners with adjustable mortgages can refinance them at any time, so long as they qualify for a new loan, so some facing a payment increase may be able to wait it out and refinance later, if the market improves.
There have been sudden changes in the mortgage market before, but this one may be both more severe and more damaging than those in the past.

In past years most borrowers had 30-year mortgages with fixed rates. If such borrower kept his job, he usually could meet the monthly payments, even if the value of the home had declined so much that he could not et a new mortgage.

Now, however, many mortgages call for sharply rising monthly payments after a few years, and borrowers were given loans without regard to their ability to meet the higher payments. Lenders assumed the mortgage could be refinanced, and that rising home prices would assure repayment of the loan. It became common to offer homebuyers loans to finance the entire purchase price of a home.

In June, banking regulators ordered that adjustable-rate loans be given only to borrowers who could afford the rate at which it was likely to be reset, meaning that many borrowers would not qualify for refinancings even if their homes had not lost value. Such a rule three years ago might have prevented the crisis, Mr. Barbera said, but imposing it now may worsen the problem.

Investors made the mistake of assuming that housing prices would continue to rise, said Dwight M. Jaffee, a real estate finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “I can’t believe these sophisticated guys made this mistake,” he said. “But I would remind you that lots of investors bought dot-com stocks.”
He added, “When you are an investor, and everybody else is doing the same thing and making money, you often forget to ask the hard question.”

And that is how a problem that began with Wall Street excesses that provided easy credit to borrowers — and made it possible for people to pay more for homes — has now turned around and severely damaged the very housing market that it helped for so long.

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Housing market prepped for a "blood bath"

Housing market prepped for a "blood bath"

The U.S. housing market could be facing a two- to three-year downturn, with the supply of unsold homes creeping up to 4.2 million, a record. The national median home price is poised for its first decline since the Great Depression, and confidence among U.S. home builders dipped this month to its lowest level since February 1991. Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director who now runs Roubini Global Economics, said the housing recession had now expanded to an across-the-board economic recession.

Mortgage Rate Rise Pushes U.S. Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath'
By Kathleen M. Howley
June 20 (Bloomberg) --

The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in June to the lowest since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index released this week. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. New-home sales will decline 33 percent from 2005's peak to the end of this year, according to the Realtors' group, exceeding the 25 percent three-year drop in 1991 that helped spark a recession.

`Economic Recession'
``It's not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, and Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities in 2006, said last week that rising foreclosures reduced their earnings. Bear Stearns said profit fell 10 percent, and Goldman reported a 1 percent gain, the smallest in three quarters. Both firms are based in New York.

The investment banks, insurance companies, pension funds and asset-management firms that hold some of the U.S.'s $6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities have yet to suffer the full effect of subprime loans gone bad, said David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer. Subprime mortgages, given to people with bad or limited credit histories, account for about $800 billion of the market.

``I continue to believe that we haven't seen the bottom in the subprime market,'' Viniar said on a June 14 conference call with reporters. ``There will be more pain felt by people as that works through the system.''

He didn't return calls this week seeking additional comments.

Homebuilder Stocks
Homebuilding stocks are down 20 percent this year after falling 20 percent in 2006, according to the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 16 companies. Before last year, the index had gained sixfold in five years.

``There isn't a recovery about to happen,'' said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder. The company's stock tumbled 42 percent this year through yesterday.

The share of people taking out all types of adjustable-rate home loans averaged 29 percent during the past three years, compared with the 17 percent average of the prior three years, according to data compiled by Mclean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.

Higher fixed mortgage rates and stricter lending standards mean some of those borrowers won't be able to refinance into fixed-rate loans. Many of them have seen their home's value drop even as their interest rates adjust higher.

`Millions of People'
``When all these people see their mortgage payment and it's up 40 or 50 percent, they're going to say, `We can't stay in this house,''' Pimco's Kiesel said. ``And there are millions of people in this situation.''

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.74 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for home loans. That adds $116 a month to the payment for a $300,000 loan and about $42,000 over the life of the mortgage.

The recent increase in mortgage rates is the biggest spike since 2004. The change means buyers can afford 8 percent less house than they could five weeks ago, Kiesel said.
``Prices are going lower,'' he said.

The housing sector will push the U.S. economy into recession unless the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate at the first surge in unemployment, said Kiesel, who expects the Fed to reduce rates.

Home Equity Loans
In addition to their primary mortgages, homeowners had $913.7 billion of debt in home equity loans in 2005, more than double the $445.1 billion in 2001, according to a paper by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy on equity extraction issued by the Fed three months ago.

About a third of that money, extracted as home values surged 53 percent from 2000 to 2005, was used to buy cars and other consumer goods, according to the paper. The interest rate on those loans doubled to 8.25 percent in 2006 from 4 percent in 2003.

If the Federal Reserve lowers the rate it charges for overnight lending to banks, that would cut the prime rate that moves in tandem with it and reduce the interest on many types of adjustable home loans, including home equity mortgages.

Federal Reserve policy makers probably will keep the overnight bank lending rate unchanged at a six-year high of 5.25 percent when they next meet on June 27, according to a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists.

Boom and Bust
Homebuyers who got an adjustable-rate mortgage, a so-called ARM, in 2004 have seen their rate climb by about 40 percent. That's enough to add $288 to the monthly payment for a $300,000 mortgage. The average adjustable rate last week was 5.75 percent, an 11-month high, according to Freddie Mac.

Roubini predicts the decline in U.S. home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.

The primary cause of the 1990 to 1991 recession was a real estate boom and bust similar to the past seven years, Roubini said. A real estate ``bubble'' in the mid-1980s led to speculative buying and lower credit standards that resulted in widespread foreclosures, he said. The defaults triggered a credit crunch that turned into an economic recession in the spring of 1990, said Roubini, who is an economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.
He put the chance of a recession this year at ``50-50,'' above former Fed chief Greenspan's 33 percent estimate. A recession is a decline in gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters.

`Significant Drag'
Greenspan warned of ``froth'' in the real estate market in 2005, before leaving the central bank in January 2006. Three months ago Greenspan said there was a ``one-third probability'' of an economic recession this year, in large part due to the unsteady housing market. He reiterated that view last month at a conference hosted by Merrill Lynch & Co. in Singapore
``There is no doubt there is a slowdown going on in the U.S.,'' Greenspan said at the conference. ``We are clearly having troubles in the capital investment area, as well as potentially in the consumption area and obviously housing being a significant drag.''

A Fed survey of senior loan officers issued in April said that 45 percent of lenders had restricted ``nontraditional'' lending, such as interest-only mortgages, and 15 percent had tightened standards for the most creditworthy, or prime, borrowers. More than half had raised standards for subprime borrowers, according to the survey.

Subprime mortgages have rates that are at least 2 or 3 percentage points above the safest so-called prime loans. Such loans made up about a fifth of all new mortgages last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington.

Housing Chain
Making it harder for those people to buy houses is going to create trouble all the way up the housing chain as people who own starter homes find it more difficult to sell their real estate and buy bigger properties, said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. in New York.

``The subprime market has changed character dramatically, and that takes a number of entry-level buyers out of the picture,'' said Soss, who was an adviser to former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.

Home sales won't increase in any sustained way until 2008, though the stumble probably won't cause a recession because the housing market hasn't reduced consumer spending, he said.

Retail Sales Endure
``Here we are a year and a half into the housing slowdown and retail sales are off the chart,'' Soss said. The economy expanded at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier, the smallest gain since the 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter of 2003, ``but it hasn't collapsed, and I don't think it will,'' he said.

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis yesterday said the U.S. housing slump is almost over. ``The drag stops in the next few months,'' said Lewis, whose bank relies on the U.S. market for almost 90 percent of its revenue. ``We do not see a recession. Because that drag stops, you'll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters.''

The median U.S. price for a previously owned home fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the third consecutive decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Before the third quarter of 2006 prices hadn't dropped since 1993. The quarterly median may dip another 2.4 percent in the current period, the Chicago-based industry trade group said in its June forecast.

Measured annually, the national median hasn't dropped since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, an economist with the trade group.

Increase in Foreclosures
The share of mortgages entering foreclosure rose to 0.58 percent in the first quarter, the highest on record, from 0.54 percent in the final three months of 2006, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report last week. Subprime loans going into default rose to a five-year high of 2.43 percent, up from 2 percent, and late payments from borrowers with poor credit histories rose to almost 13.8 percent, the highest since 2002.

Prime loans entering foreclosure increased to 0.25 percent, the highest in a survey that goes back to 1972. That's a sign that even the most creditworthy borrowers are being squeezed, Roubini said.

``We have a lot of people, even prime borrowers, who are at the edge because they either bought with no equity, they have an ARM that's seen a rate spike, or they used their house like an ATM and turned their equity into cash,'' Roubini said. ``Many of those people are under water today, and if they have to sell, it's going to drag down values in their neighborhood.''

Adjustable Rates
Some owners are selling their homes at ``fire sale'' prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.

``Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,'' White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said. The slump probably won't cause a recession, he said.

``It's not going to be the 1929 stock-market disaster, with people jumping out of buildings, but there is going to be widely dispersed pain for the next few quarters,'' he said.

The biggest problem is volatile home prices, said Gary Shilling, head of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic forecasting company in Springfield, New Jersey. Shilling put the chance of a recession this year at 75 percent.

``A lot of people went out on a limb to pay the record high prices for homes, and they're in trouble now,'' he said.

`Exploding ARMs'
Borrowers who got loans with so-called teaser rates are in the biggest bind, according to Shilling. Prices surged a record 12 percent in 2005, spurring buyers to ``stretch'' to qualify for bigger loans by using interest-only ARMs or so-called option ARMs with low introductory payments.
Some have payments based on interest rates as low as 1 percent. At the end of an introductory period, the rate can more than quadruple, leading them to be called ``exploding ARMs,'' he said. Some loans allow borrowers to choose how much they want to pay, with the balance added to the loan's principle, making it possible to owe more than the home's purchase price.

``Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages are getting squeezed on all sides,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. Real estate taxes have surged along with home prices, and many U.S. homeowners saw their property insurance double after Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana and Mississippi, she said.

Swonk said the housing slide will last into next year. Still, she doesn't expect the economy to slow because of it.

``The economy could easily beat expectations in the second half of this year,'' she said. ``The housing correction remains the primary threat to that happening.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

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mortgages, housing, real estate, ARM, fixed rate mortgage, financial plan

Lenders move to stop credit repair schemes

Mortgage industry tries to block credit-repair schemes

Federal regulators and lenders are reviewing a growing practice that allows borrowers with low credit scores to pay money to piggyback on accounts with good scores. Fair Isaac Corp., developer of the FICO score, said it would change its credit-scoring system by the end of the year to end the loophole.

Lenders move to stop credit repair schemes
Shaky borrowers pay cash to piggyback on acounts with good scores.

Only a low credit score stood between Alipio Estruch and a mortgage to buy a $449,000 Spanish-style house in Weston, Fla., a few miles west of Fort Lauderdale.

Instead of spending several years repairing his credit rating, which he said was marred by two forgotten cell phone bills and identity theft, the 37-year-old real estate agent paid $1,800 to an Internet-based company to bump up his score almost overnight.

The result was a happy ending for Estruch, but the growing practice is sending shivers through the mortgage industry. Federal regulators are also reviewing the practice. And after being contacted by The Associated Press for this story, Fair Isaac Corp., the developer of the widely used FICO score, said it will change its credit scoring system beginning later this year in a way it contends will end this little-known but potentially high-impact mortgage loan loophole.

Instantcreditbuilders.com, or ICB, helped Estruch boost his score by arranging for him to be added as an authorized user on several credit cards of people with stellar credit who were paid to allow this coattailing. Parents also use this practice when they add their children to their credit cards to help them build solid credit.

The pitch to those who are essentially renting their credit history for pay is seductive: You don’t need to worry about users of this service receiving duplicate copies of your credit cards, account numbers or any of your personal information. It’s essentially free money, they are told.

Brian Kinney, 44, a retired Army officer in Glendale, Calif., pulls in more than $2,500 a month by lending out 19 credit card spots on two old Citibank cards with strong payment histories. Kinney, whose FICO score is above 800 on the scale of 300 to 850, quit his job working at a Farmers Insurance agency and uses the ICB income to tide him over until he starts his own insurance agency.

Buying a better score
Lenders are worried, however, that they’re taking on greater default risks by unknowingly offering lower interest rates than they otherwise would to applicants who artificially boost their credit scores. Their trade group has complained to the Federal Trade Commission and is talking with the credit reporting bureaus in case the practice becomes more widespread.

Estruch paid $1,800 in December for three credit card spots, and by January, his FICO score jumped from 550 to 715. In mid-March, he closed on his four-bedroom beige stucco house after obtaining a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage from a unit of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. It carried a 7.5 percent interest rate and required no down payment.

"Everything now is score driven. I had a great mortgage history, but I got hurt because of my credit score," said Estruch, who also works as a mortgage broker, had bought and sold two houses previously, and currently owns another home in New York. Estruch said he’s current on his mortgage payments.

Companies like Largo, Fla.-based ICB are sprouting on the Internet with little overhead and no-frills marketing. They post ads on community Web sites like Craigslist and have sponsored links on Google and Yahoo. Competitors of ICB have even reached out to mortgage brokers, lenders and real estate agents, flooding their e-mail with advertisements.

Jason LaBossiere, who founded ICB a year and a half ago, said his company receives 100 to 150 new leads daily — a number that has been growing — and those inquiries lead to 10 to 20 new clients a week.

ICB charges $900 for the first credit card account, with a discount for additional ones. The cardholder allowing the piggybacking on his or her credit history can receive $100 to $150 per slot, depending on the age and credit limit of each card. ICB pockets the rest.

The effect on a credit score can vary depending on what else is in a client’s report. But one borrowed credit card account can increase a score between 30 and 45 points, two between 60 and 90 points, and five between 150 and 205 points, according to ICB. That’s because the computer program that calculates scores is essentially tricked into believing the credit renter has a better repayment history when it sees the added accounts, and that helps lift the credit score.

Once the credit card company files an updated report to credit bureaus — leading to a higher FICO score — the credit renter is removed from the account of the person allowing the piggybacking. However, the credit card’s payment history remains on the authorized user’s credit report forever, and lenders have no way of knowing how the credit borrower is related to the cardholder.

High scores bring lower ratesA higher credit score can save a consumer an enormous amount of money because it usually means a lower mortgage interest rate. It also can mean the difference between qualifying for a loan or not, as in Estruch’s case.

According to Fair Isaac, lenders would probably demand about a 9.8 percent interest rate on a $300,000, 30-year fixed mortgage for an applicant with a credit score between 500 and 579. That would translate into a $2,585 monthly payment for principal and interest.

But a borrower with a score between 760 and 850 seeking the same loan would qualify for about a 6 percent rate that would cost just $1,796 a month for principal and interest. That savings of $789 each month would total $284,040 over 30 years.

Kinney, the retired Army officer in California, said those borrowing his good credit history don’t get his personal information, full credit card number or credit card expiration dates. Any sensitive data is handled through ICB, and Kinney adds the users himself by calling his credit card company. ICB also destroys any duplicate cards that are issued to the credit renter, according to its contract.

Instead of being worried about risks he may be assuming, Kinney said borrowers are the ones vulnerable to scammers posing as do-gooders. Those seeking a credit hike give the cardholder their names and Social Security numbers, which, in the wrong hands, could lead to identity theft. Kinney said he also receives credit card offers in the mail for the credit borrowers on his accounts, opening up another possibility for fraud, but he throws them away.

"I know the whole thing sounds kind of odd and not very legitimate, but it is for now," Kinney said. "I don’t know how long before someone will decide it’s illegal. But I’m not counting on this for the long-term."

Ginny Ferguson, a mortgage broker in Pleasanton, Calif., and a credit expert for the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, considers the practice mortgage fraud, and the trade organization is about to release a policy statement against it.

"These companies are encouraging consumers to commit fraud. On a standard home loan, there’s a clause that says the consumer is not omitting pertinent facts that could impact his or her ability to repay the loan," Ferguson said.

ICB’s LaBossiere said he sees his business as a second chance for the consumer who has had little financial education to make good decisions.

"People who are our clients are spending an incredible amount of money to get their finances back in order," he said. "They’ve learned through a school of pain that it’s such an important aspect of regaining control of their lives again."

So far, federal authorities have yet to make a ruling on the practice. "What I’ve gathered from attorneys here is that it appears to be legal" technically, said FTC spokesman Frank Dorman. "However, the agency is not saying that it is legal."

Lenders, who depend on credit scores to assess a person’s ability to pay back a loan, are closely watching the practice’s growth. It also comes at a time when the industry is reeling from the a soaring default rate on subprime mortgages, home loans for people with bad credit. As a result, they’ve tightened lending standards, but the credit-renting practice threatens to undermine their efforts to reduce exposure to risky borrowers.

Score system under revisionNinety percent of the largest U.S. banks base their loan decisions on FICO scores, which currently includes authorized user accounts. However, after discussions with lenders and industry officials, Fair Isaac said it intends to announce this week that all future versions of its FICO score methodology will no longer consider authorized user accounts, said Tom Quinn, Fair Isaac’s vice president of scoring solutions.

The next version is slated to roll out in September to one of the three main credit reporting agencies — Equifax Inc., Experian Information Solutions Inc. or TransUnion LLC — with the other two agencies receiving the new version some time in 2008.

The change won’t be a quick-fix for lenders trying to weed out credit renters. Corey Carlisle, senior director of government affairs for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said it takes time for lenders to transition from one scoring system to another.

"All lenders have their own guidelines and parameters on how to use and incorporate the FICO score. It would take time to understand what’s in a new credit score," Carlisle said.

Quinn also noted that some lenders generate their own scores using authorized user accounts in their calculations, so the practice may not be easily negated.

"It’s an industrywide issue and there are other scores out there," he said. This is a phenomenon that impacts more than just FICO scores."

Other consumers besides credit renters stand to lose with the change, namely those for whom authorized user accounts were designed: college students on their parents’ cards and spouses with little to no credit of their own.

But there’s no way to distinguish these from the latest crop of strangers trying to augment their scores. Lenders who want to find out more information about others on credit card accounts are hindered by the Fair Credit Reporting Act and privacy laws.

"As with any decision, there’s a trade-off," Quinn said. "The many honest consumers who learn good credit skills with the help from a family member, that feature will be removed. But the challenge for us is maintaining the integrity of the FICO score."

mortgages, credit repair, FICO score, credit consultation

Homebuilders in a Hole

Homebuilders in a Hole

Battered by the bust, they're filing for Chapter 11 and begging hedge funds for help
by Dean Foust and Dawn Kopecki

When Kara Homes began building Horizons at Birch Hill, a community for active seniors, the plans were ambitious: 228 spacious residences that weren't typical cookie-cutter McMansions. But four years later, the project in Old Bridge, N.J., has been abandoned by Kara, which is now in Chapter 11. A dozen or so homes stand unfinished, the front doors swinging in the wind, and the half-built clubhouse bears a large "Unsafe for Human Occupancy" sign.

"It's not a great situation, but we're all hanging together," says Frank Ramson, one of the development's 70-odd homeowners. "What's killing us is the uncertainty of how long it might take another builder to step in."

Ramson isn't alone in his angst. The downturn in the housing market has caught the nation's homebuilders by surprise, leaving many overextended with costly land they can't develop and unfinished homes they can't sell. The financial strain is starting to show. From Arizona to Arkansas, dozens of small- and midsize builders have filed for bankruptcy over the past six months.

And in late April, credit analysts at Moody's Investors Service (MCO) warned that a number of large homebuilders could fall out of compliance with their debt agreements later this year, leaving them at risk of default unless lenders come to their rescue by agreeing to rework their loans. Some builders are so desperate, in fact, that they're even running into the arms of hedge funds to bail them out with fresh loans at high rates and onerous terms.

More Bankruptcies?
Wall Street certainly has its concerns about the industry. This year the price of credit default swaps—in effect, a tool for bondholders to hedge their risks—has risen sharply for several large builders, including Pulte Homes (PHM), Toll Brothers (TOL), and D.R. Horton (DHI). Toll Brothers Chief Financial Officer Joel Rassman says: "The people buying the swaps may think it's riskier, but the people actually buying our paper don't [because our spreads with Treasuries are shrinking]."

But for the industry as a whole, there may be even more problems waiting just below the surface since many builders entered into big land deals with partners, amassing billions in debt that doesn't show up on their balance sheets. "I think we're going to see a lot more [bankruptcy] filings in the next 6 to 12 months," says Tucson attorney Eric Slocum Sparks, who is representing one local builder, AmericaBuilt Construction, in Chapter 11. "I've got a couple of clients who want to see me next week, and I know these aren't social visits."

The extent of the industry's woes will depend on where housing heads from here. So far analysts and executives alike are unsure whether, or by how much, the slump will deepen. But the trends aren't pretty. The National Association of Realtors now predicts that new-home sales are likely to drop 18% this year, a bleaker scenario than the 9% decrease in the February forecast.

Daring Bets
Nonetheless, the current generation of builders entered this downturn with far better balance sheets than their brethren in the last housing bust during the late 1980s. And barring a total collapse in the market, lenders are also likely to offer a safety net, making concessions to keep the builders afloat in the near term. "I expect the lenders will be willing to work with them," says Fitch Ratings analyst Robert Rulla. "They'll want to maintain that relationship for when the turnaround comes."

Still, those lifelines can come at a big cost, namely higher interest rates, special loan modifications, and tough new stipulations that restrict everything from the builder's right to repurchase shares to its ability to take on new debt for future expansion.

For some, the white knights may be hedge funds. Consider the plight of Dominion Homes (DHOM), an Ohio-based builder that sold $257 million worth of homes last year. When Dominion fell close to default last August on $216 million in bank debt, hedge fund Silver Point Finance bought the loans and negotiated tough terms. Some $90 million of the refinancing came with an interest rate of 15%, vs. the 9.25% Dominion had been paying.

Silver Point also stipulated that it could receive a 15% stake in Dominion in the event of default. "The [fund was] willing to go where no other regulated institution would go," says Ronald F. Greenspan, an attorney and restructuring adviser for FTI Consulting (FCN). Dominion CFO William Cornely admits the new rates are high, but says it "affords us the opportunity to continue operations during the downturn and position us for the rebound."

Using Up Cash
If business doesn't stabilize, more builders could find themselves in the same hole in the ground as Dominion. Already, some analysts are concerned about the pace at which many builders have been burning through cash. Moody's credit analyst, Joseph A. Snider, notes that 11 of the 21 large builders whose debt his firm rates had negative cash flow in 2006 as many were stuck with higher-than-expected inventories of homes they couldn't sell.

Dallas-based Centex (CTX) took a $150 million charge after walking away from options for more than 37,000 lots nationwide and wrote down other land by roughly $300 million, triggering a 79% plunge in fiscal 2007 profits. "We still see uncertainty in many of our markets," Centex CEO Timothy Eller told analysts on Apr. 30, warning that the industry could be in the middle of a three-year correction.

More bloodletting may be ahead. Many large builders also took minority stakes in joint ventures, allowing them to stockpile land for future needs while keeping billions in debt off their balance sheets. Alisa Guyer Galperin, an analyst at the Center for Financial Research & Analysis, estimates that Lennar (LEN) is on the hook for up to $910 million of $5.6 billion in debt through partnerships not on its books.

Battles Ahead?
One fear is that if a partner runs into financial trouble, Lennar and other homebuilders could find themselves battling with lenders that demand they make good on the partnership's total outstanding debt. Florida builder Technical Olympic USA (TOA) is now embroiled in a lawsuit with one of its lenders, Deutsche Bank (DB), which claims the builder is in "multiple potential defaults" on $675 million in debt owed by joint venture partners that failed.

For its part, Lennar CFO Bruce Gross says the company has mitigated its risk by partnering with strong institutional investors like the pension fund CalPERS and has structured the deal to make sure it isn't liable for its partners. "Our joint ventures are very strategic and are designed to share the upside opportunity and downside risk with other investors," says Gross. For now, Wall Street is thinking only about the downside.

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real estate, mortgages, home builders, hedge fund returns, lending, real estate market downturn

Subprime Mortgages - The Glory Days Are Over

Mortgage market unstable?

Surprise was the key word Monday at the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York, as many were shocked at the quick collapse of the subprime-mortgage market. The quick market sell-off has led to the demise of many lenders in the industry, and many loans are no longer even possible for clients.

Speed of subprime bust surprises lenders
Many mortgage lenders expected a subprime meltdown, but not one that came so fast and strong.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writerMay 23 2007: 8:18 AM EDT

The subprime mortgage meltdown has been a shock to industry insiders, but now they say it's hitting harder and faster than expected - even to those who predicted the crisis in the first place.That was the message Monday from a panel of leading industry executives on the state of the mortgage lending industry at the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York.

Michael Marriott, a panelist and managing director for Credit Suisse, said, "Last October, I predicted the subprime market would collapse and many issuers would go out of business. But the violence and speed of the market sell-off surprised people."

David Lowman, a panelist and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s global mortgage business, said, "35 percent of what once could be done, can no longer be done," referring to mortgage loan products that have effectively been taken off the shelves.

And speaking separately from his Atlanta office, Duane LeGate, president of House Buyer Network, a specialist in short sales and foreclosure prevention, said one of the real estate agents he works with had six deals blow up within four days because, "The loan originator told him, 'We're not offering [these products] anymore.'"

According to LeGate, this kind of thing just started to happen in the past month or so.Allen Hardester, director of business development for mortgage broker Guaranteed Rate, said many once-common subprime loans products are now almost impossible to find.

Mortgage lenders get creative "Anything that smacks of no-income and no-documentation is history," he said. "Anything above 85 percent to 90 percent loan-to-value, anything non-owner occupied, anything ludicrous as to value - like someone stepping up from a $1,000 a month payment to a $6,000 a month - is history."

Lenders are also scrutinizing applications much more carefully, and many don't like what they find. Lowman said he had recently looked at a low-documention application for a UPS driver who earned a quarter of a million dollars last year - or so the application stated. Fictional claims, often involving outside income, are far from unusual.

"If you took into account every person with a lawn care service on the side, there wouldn't be a blade of grass left in the United States," he said.

Investors who buy and sell bonds backed by the mortgage payments of ordinary homeowners have seen bad loans rise and have told lenders and brokers they will no longer buy whole classes of securitized mortgages, which can quickly pull the plug on a prospective home buyer.

Lauren Pephens, managing principal of financial services advisory firm, Pephens & Co., called it the "push-down effect" at a session on loss mitigation at the MBA conference. She said that some buyers have gone to close the deal only to be told that their financing had fallen apart.
All the fudging, the lax underwriting, the push for loans that went on during the housing boom were facilitated by the rapid rise of home prices. Outsized increases in home equity in many U.S. housing markets covered a multitude of sins and encouraged lenders to extend loans to poor risk borrowers.

If an owner couldn't afford to pay the monthly mortgage bill when her hybrid adjustable rate mortgage reset at a much higher interest rate, well, that was just fine. Latest home prices Her home had gone up in value from $200,000 to $300,000 in the interim, and she could tap that extra $100,000 in home equity to pay her bills. If worse came to worse, she could sell her house at a big profit and pay off the entire bill. But when homes became unaffordable for too many buyers starting in 2006, "The people who were driving up prices couldn't drive them up further," said Hardester.

The speculators, the flippers and rehabbers fled. Houses went on the market and just sat. Inventories lengthened, home builders started pulling back and foreclosures climbed.A drop is seen before recoverySo far the turnaround on prices has not been huge - unless you compare it with what immediately came before. In 2006 the median U.S. home price rose 13.6 percent, and in 2005 it climbed 8.8 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. Now the industry group has forecast a drop in home prices this year.

MBA's chief economist, Doug Duncan, who was at the conference, predicted his own housing-price decline of 2.7 percent for 2007. Factoring in inflation of about 2 percent, the decline in real dollars is between 4 percent and 5 percent.

Duncan had said a recovery would begin mid-year but he's revised that forecast, delaying his predicted rebound until the fourth quarter of 2007.

Despite their surprise at the speed and depth of the subprime meltdown, Marriott, Lowman and their fellow panelists expected a quicker recovery than Duncan.

The group, which also included Patti Cook, an executive vice president with Freddie Mac, and Thomas Lund, an executive vice president with Fannie Mae, cited a strong economy, low unemployment and favorable demographic growth for their optimistic stance that recovery will come soon.

The recovery will "play out quicker than in the past," according to Lowman, "because [the fall] happened faster than in the past."

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subprime, mortgages, mortgage backed securities,