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Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club warehouse unit is restricting purchases of some types of rice to four bags a visit as prices reached a record in Chicago futures trading.
The limits on jasmine, basmati and long-grain white rice, a response to ``recent supply and demand trends,'' will be put into effect in all U.S. stores where allowed by law and are effective immediately, Sam's Club spokeswoman Kristy Reed said today in an e-mailed statement.
Some consumers have started hoarding rice, the food staple for half the world as prices soar and supplies shrink. China, Vietnam, India and Egypt have curbed sales abroad to safeguard domestic supplies and cool inflation. Thailand also may restrict shipments, a World Bank official said today.
``The warehouse clubs are doing it to protect their business customers, like smaller restaurants, caterers, nursing homes, day-care centers,'' said food consultant Jim Degen. ``The business members are the most important members in warehouse clubs because they generate so much more revenue per member.'' Degen is a principal of J.M. Degen & Co., a food industry marketing consulting firm based in Templeton, California.
Some of Costco Wholesale Corp.'s stores, including locations in California, have put limits on sales of rice and flour, Chief Executive Officer James Sinegal told Reuters yesterday. Sinegal didn't return a phone call from Bloomberg News seeking comment.
Distribution Systems
Costco and Sam's Club have extensive distribution systems and source worldwide, so they can redistribute their rice supplies within the United States, meaning limits on customers may not be a long-term problem, said Degen.
``We are working with our suppliers to address this matter to ensure we are in stock,'' Sam's Club's Reed said. The stores aren't limiting purchases of flour or oil, she said. Reached via phone, she declined to comment further.
Rice has more than doubled in the past year. Rice futures for July delivery rose 2.6 percent in Chicago today, touching a record $24.85 per 100 pounds, and have climbed 26 percent this month.
Wheat, corn and soybeans gained to records this year, spurring social unrest in Haiti and Egypt.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, rose 37 cents to $56.92 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Costco, the largest U.S. warehouse club, climbed $1.52, or 2.2 percent, to $69.60.
Food Prices
The higher commodities prices are also pushing up U.S. food prices and spurring inflation. The consumer price index climbed 0.3 percent in March, after no change in the prior month, the Labor Department said April 16. Inflation, combined with falling home values and mounting job losses, is leading to cutbacks in consumer spending that may push the economy into a recession.
Limits on rice purchases will be felt the most in California and Texas, which have large Asian and Mexican populations, whose diets include rice, Degen said.
Soaring prices may put basic foods beyond the reach of the poorest people, raising the risk of a ``silent famine'' in Asia, a World Food Program official said April 21.
In the U.S., half of the domestic rice crop meets 88 percent of the country's demand, said David Coia, a spokesman with the USA Rice Federation in Arlington, Virginia.
`Uncalled-For Hysteria'
``When global prices rise as quickly as they have, as rice has, and as recently happened with wheat, you are going to have some concerns, and hysteria in some cases that is uncalled for,'' Ephraim Leibtag, an economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, said in a telephone interview. ``Food supplies have been pretty stable in the U.S. over the last 20 to 30 years.''
When prices rise rapidly, consumers buy larger quantities to lock in the lower prices, and that effect is exacerbated when a product is storable, he said.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of consumer prices for rice, pasta and cornmeal rose 12.1 percent in March over a year earlier. In March 2007, the index was up 5.2 percent.
``There is no shortage of rice in the United States, and my understanding is that you have these companies like Sam's Club and Costco that want to have rice for all their customers, not just the large purchasers who hoard,'' Coia said by telephone.
The worldwide supply shortfall will begin to ease with the June harvest, and may be resolved by the end of 2009, as farmers increase their crops to meet the demand, he said.
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Global investments in commodities rose by more than a fifth in the first quarter to $400 billion, helping boost prices as investors sought a buffer against inflation and a weaker dollar, Citigroup Inc. analysts said.
Investments in commodity indexes rose $40 billion in the first three months of the year to $185 billion, a larger gain than the whole of 2007, Citigroup analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks said today in a note to clients.
A ``tidal wave of investment flows into commodity markets has further boosted prices,'' the analysts said. ``The weakening U.S. dollar has been the main macro force attracting funds to commodity markets. Other contributors are falling real interest rates and inflation worries.''
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 futures rose to close at a record on March 5. The gauge climbed 22 percent last year for a sixth consecutive annual increase and has advanced 17 percent this year, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 3.5 percent in 2007 and has fallen 6.5 percent this year. Most-active crude oil, gold, platinum, wheat, corn and soybean futures are among those that set records this year.
After investments in indexes, commodity trading advisers account for the biggest portion of the total amount invested, the Citigroup analysts said. At the end of the first quarter, advisers accounted for $94 billion, 18 percent more than at the end of last year, the analysts said.
$70 Billion Inflow
Hedge funds ranked third, with $75 billion in commodity holdings, an increase of 25 percent over the end of 2007, Heap and Tonks said. In all, they estimate $70 billion in additional investment funds flowed into commodities markets in the first quarter.
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, accounted for $46 billion in commodity investments as of March 31, up 31 percent from $35 billion at the end of 2007, the analysts said. ETFs track equity, bond and commodity indexes and are often cheaper and easier to trade than similar mutual funds.
The ``tidal wave'' of the past quarter is showing ``signs it is already ebbing,'' Heap and Tonks wrote. ``We don't think it is sustainable.''
The credit crisis that began last year has made it ``harder to get finance to build new supply capacity and to build new infrastructure,'' cooling demand, Heap and Tonks said. The effects of the credit crisis on equities markets accelerated the flow of investment funds into commodities, which they said also may prove temporary.
``There was no conviction regarding financial assets,'' Jim Vail, who manages $1.5 billion in natural-resource funds at ING Investment Management Co. in New York, said today in a telephone interview.
`Seasonal Top'
``It was a seasonal top in commodity prices,'' Vail said. ``There's going to be some pullback, and I look at that as an opportunity.''
``In this type of environment, where supply constraints are repeating themselves, it's going to keep prices higher,'' he said. ``Capital costs are also higher. As the marginal cost of production continues to increase, it tells you where prices are going.''
Long-term fundamentals of rising demand and constrained production, which have stimulated investment in recent years, remain intact, yet some investors have started cutting their bets on rising raw-materials prices since the end of the quarter, Heap and Tonks said.
The dollar's decline, while providing a short-term boost to prices from investors seeking a store of value, may not last if the weaker U.S. currency fails to stimulate economic activity to increase consumption of raw materials, Heap and Tonks said. A falling dollar's effect on futures also may fade if it depresses prices in producer currencies, eroding profits, they said.